Al Walsh's Business Articles

The government says Green Shoots are popping up and economic recovery is just around the corner. What do you think?

Link to poll:

http://polls.linkedin.com/p/48460/kvqkq

Free Information and Resources

2009-07-19T10:21:00.000-07:00

Go to the main page of my blogsite where you can access free articles, presentations, and information resources pertaining to Business, Economy, and Career.

http://www.walshal.wordpress.com

Enjoy,

Al Walsh, CEO
Walsh Enterprises, Business & Financial Advisors
Huntington Beach, California USA
http://www.awalsh.us
walshal1@aol.com
(714) 465-2749

Contracts and Procurement: Are They Giving You Proper Value?

2009-07-18T12:05:00.001-07:00

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Contracts and Procurement: Are They Giving You Proper Value?

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Walsh Enterprises Brochure

2009-07-13T15:57:00.003-07:00

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Walsh Enterprises Brochure

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Profile: Walsh Enterprises

2009-07-13T15:57:00.001-07:00

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Profile: Walsh Enterprises

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Al Walsh: Business Guru?

2009-07-13T15:56:00.001-07:00

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Al Walsh: Business Guru?

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Contracts: Read And Understand Before Signing

2009-07-13T15:36:00.001-07:00

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Contracts: Read And Understand Before Signing

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Thoughts On Critical Thinking

2009-07-13T15:35:00.003-07:00

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Thoughts On Critical Thinking

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Business: Its All About The People

2009-07-13T15:35:00.001-07:00

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Business: Its All About The People

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Career Advice: Dealing With The Clever Trouble-maker

2009-07-13T15:34:00.001-07:00

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Career Advice: Dealing With The Clever Trouble-maker

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Doing Business: Put A Little Flair Into It

2009-07-13T15:33:00.001-07:00

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Doing Business: Put A Little Flair Into It

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Business Process Improvement - Is It?

2009-07-13T15:32:00.001-07:00

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Business Process Improvement - Is It?

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Growing Your Business: Don't Make This Mistake

2009-07-13T15:31:00.001-07:00

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Growing Your Business: Don't Make This Mistake

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The ABCs Of Negotiating

2009-07-13T15:30:00.003-07:00

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The ABCs Of Negotiating

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Letters Of Credit: A Primer

2009-07-13T15:30:00.001-07:00

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Letters Of Credit: A Primer

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Taking Your Business International?

2009-07-13T15:29:00.001-07:00

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Taking Your Business International?

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Writing A Business Plan And Chasing Capital

2009-07-13T15:28:00.003-07:00

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Writing A Business Plan And Chasing Capital

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Business Planning: Thoughts For The Beginning Entrepreneur

2009-07-13T15:28:00.001-07:00

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Business Planning: Thoughts For The Beginning Entrepreneur

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So You Wanna Start A Business!

2009-07-13T15:27:00.001-07:00

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So You Wanna Start A Business!

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Before You Hire That Turnaround Expert

2009-07-13T15:26:00.001-07:00

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Before You Hire That Turnaround Expert

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Homage To A Classy Guy

2009-07-13T15:25:00.001-07:00

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Homage To A Classy Guy

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Walsh Enterprises Your Business Partner

2009-07-10T08:01:00.001-07:00

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Walsh Enterprises Your Business Partner

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Surviving The Recession

2009-07-10T08:00:00.001-07:00

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Surviving The Recession

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Developing Your Entrepreneurial Vision

2009-07-10T07:59:00.003-07:00

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Developing Your Entrepreneurial Vision

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Advice On IT Implementations

2009-07-10T07:59:00.001-07:00

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Advice On IT Implementations

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Making The Best Use Of Your Sales Staff

2009-07-10T07:58:00.003-07:00

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Making The Best Use Of Your Sales Staff

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Preventing Embezzlement A Guide For SMEs

2009-07-10T07:58:00.001-07:00

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Preventing Embezzlement A Guide For SMEs

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Total Quality Management - A Primer

2009-07-10T07:57:00.001-07:00

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Total Quality Management - A Primer

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Financials For Dummies

2009-07-10T07:56:00.001-07:00

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Financials For Dummies

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Primer on Venture Funding

2009-07-10T07:55:00.001-07:00

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Primer on Venture Funding

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2009-07-09T10:07:00.001-07:00

Surviving The Recession

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Business Announcement

2009-06-04T13:09:00.000-07:00

Walsh Enterprises Business & Financial Advisors

Huntington Beach, Ca USA

http://www.awalsh.us

(714) 465-2749 Skype: al-walsh

A Member Firm of Kenton & Miles International

Walsh Enterprises is pleased to announce partnership as a Member Firm of Kenton & Miles International, a prestigious global Business & Financial Advisory organization with representatives 64 countries.

The combined resources of Walsh Enterprises and Kenton & Miles are now available to meet the international needs of the business community.

Al Walsh, CEO

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Warren Buffet Takes the Words Right Out of My Mouth

2009-03-09T10:09:00.000-07:00

Today Warren Buffet chose to address the state of the economy. Among his remarks:

▪ We are in an economic “State of War” - calling the situation our “Economic Pearl Harbor”.

▪ The economy will get much worse before it improves; especially if the government doesn’t take decisive action.

▪ We need to focus first & foremost on the Liquidity Crisis in the Banks & Finance Houses.

▪ The President needs to take more of a leadership role, defining precisely how we’re going to solve the Liquidity Crisis.

Sound like a repeat of my last article.

If you won’t listen to me, will you listen to Warren?

Another item of note:

I’ve seen a lot of confusing comments about the financial meltdown in Eastern Europe. One analyst helped clear the confusion by pointing out that Austria alone loaned the equivalent of 2/3 of the national GDP to Eastern European banks, and is now facing the prospect of loan defaults. This problem overall can be measured in trillions of dollars; and the Western European banks are already in a weak state. Guess who they’re going to be looking to help? That’s right – the U.S. As if we didn’t already have enough problems.

Be aware. Be cautious. Think for yourself.

Al Walsh
CEO, Walsh Enterprises - Business Advisors

Time for Obama to Figure It Out

2009-03-08T10:46:00.000-07:00

I heard a quote today that struck a chord. When Albert Einstein witnessed the horrors of WWI, he commented that the technological developments of the time - "were like an axe in the hands of a madman".

In a way the same could be said of the information revolution that empowered our finance houses to create the greatest greed-driven boondoggle in the history of mankind.
There's nothing wrong with the technology. It's just a dumb tool that, when used properly, has wonderful effects; ie the internet. Once again, as always, it comes down to what humans do with it.

The roots of our current predicament come down to the actions of the Fed, which arrogantly believed that they could create endless credit and fiat money without consequence. Somehow they came to believe that if they did it on a large enough scale, there would be no price to pay. But, of course, there are always consequences; and we're just starting to pay the bill now.
Long before the real estate mess imploded, we were already a debtor nation, with ridiculously-low savings rates and a junkie's buying habit. Those factors in and of themselves were due to have negative consequences. But then the finance houses decided to take matters to a whole new level. The problem went global, and the effects are reverberating back & forth with ugly new surprises almost daily.

We now find ourselves in the absurd position of having to create even more massive debt and fiat money to make whole the very finance houses that created this mess; a bill we'll be paying for years.

The fact that we're not already starting to recover is a function of one of two factors:

Either the Fed & Treasury just don't get it yet, and are throwing thimbles of water on a wildfire
or
The mess is so big that they don't have enough water to throw.

I think it's the second alternative, and I fear for our country.

Obama doesn't get it yet. He's playing a Lincolnesque/Rooseveltesque game of holding "fireside chats" while shaping a classic Roosevelt style stimulus package. The amount of money in his plan for financial stabilization is like spitting on that proverbial wildfire. He doesn't understand that until we get the liquidity freeze broken, all the other efforts will be for naught.

Wall Street knows this. Not that I really care what they think because they were complicit in creating the mess. But they understand what needs to be done, and are frustrated at the lack of progress.

Congress never has had a clue, and never will. It's like a lifetime nursery school for privileged lawyers.

I hate big government because it's invasive and lives to perpetuate its own power. I'm not eager to help the culprits who created this mess either. But if ever there was a time to get the printing presses going overtime, it's now. There will be a huge price to pay later, but failure to act will cause chaos now. Just take a look around you. The place is starting to come apart at the seams. Even our government representatives warn of the troubles to come. I wish they would do more to head it off.

For those who argue that the dollar will be destroyed, we already destroyed it. Our only consolation is that the other nations have destroyed theirs too, so we're all in the same leaky boat.

The government debates while "Rome" burns.

It’s All About The Money!

2009-03-06T12:53:00.000-08:00

As I listen to the Wall Street pundits today, their latest line is about “the inevitable rally” that they claim is coming. One guy went so far as to pronounce on TV that “the market is severely oversold”. Anything is possible in the stock market, because it’s driven as much by emotion as fundamentals, but I wouldn’t count on seeing a substantial uptick anytime soon. Mostly I expect that recovery will be snail-slow, after further decline, and we’ll see DOW 4000 or 5000 much sooner than 8000. I also expect that there will be many more “surprises”. Sure hope I’m wrong – but don’t think so.

With all the talk about the RESULTS of the economic downturn – manufacturing drops, real estate contraction, lost jobs, etc. – it’s hard to keep track of the CAUSE. It’s all about the money!

The mess the financial institutions created has frozen liquidity. Economies run on money. Without credit, the whole thing comes to a screeching halt. That’s where we are now.

I talked in an earlier article about one analysis which has 700 US banks in trouble, with 150 in danger of failing this year. It’s common knowledge that Citi is in deep trouble, and apparently sliding by the day. GE’s a mess. The rumor mill has JP Morgan in deep, deep trouble. Who knows which finance house is next? We can’t measure the full extent of the problem because it’s a state secret – the banks, the Fed & the government aren’t talking. We can’t even find out who already got bailouts, or how much; because the government in its infinite wisdom has decided that the info. should be confidential. We also know that overseas banks are in trouble, and the forex/derivatives/debt mess in Eastern Europe is threatening to spill over, bringing a whole new set of problems measurable in $ Trillions. All these banks are intertwined. If a big foreign bank goes, what will be the effect here in the US?

Here’s the problem. Without credit we can’t do business and we’ll just continue to slide. In order to get credit moving again, the government has to spend more money bailing-out the finance houses (the bailouts so far have had little positive effect). I strongly suspect the problem is much bigger than the public is allowed to know, and it will really come down to a question of whether the government can “print” enough dollars to break the logjam without destroying the dollar in the process. Then there’s the little problem of getting someone to buy all the government debt created in the process. The foreign governments that have been financing us for years are in trouble too. Even though our economies are all intertwined, someone might decide to follow a different path of self-interest. If that happens, we’re in big trouble. I can’t remember a time when our country was more vulnerable to foreign “blackmail” than now.

Until the credit logjam is resolved, all other questions of economic health are on hold. We, and the world at large, will continue to decline. Obama’s plans won’t do squat without a credit thaw. The portion of his package dedicated to the finance mess is just a drop in the bucket – barely an opening gambit.

There are always business opportunities; in any economy. I mentioned one I like in my last article. But now is not a good time to buy into the “Wall Street propaganda”. It’s dangerous out there, and declining daily. Be very, very careful.

We just need to hope that our secretive government & Fed can get a handle on the liquidity freeze. Once they do, we need to hope that inflation & taxes don’t eat up our remaining wealth.

Buy Gold.

Where To Put Your investment Money

2009-03-05T13:17:00.000-08:00

In these uncertain times, people are groping around for viable places to put the investment money they still have available. There are always viable opportunities, in every economic situation. You just have to know where to look.

Ken Reser has written an excellent article in which he analyzes the many industrial projects going on around the world, and suggests that smart money is going into base metals mining opportunities to feed industrial demand.

Rather than try to paraphrase what Ken has to say, I'm just going to share his article in total. At the end, he provides his email address and invites us to sign up for his free editorial subscription list. You may want to take advantage of it. I have no personal stake in this other than that I think what he has to say makes sense. I'm going to sign up myself.

Worldwide Depression - - Think Again!
Ken Reser Mar: 5/09

World-wide depression? Maybe for those over-leveraged in the auto industry, housing, and other fixed assets with huge debt loads but definitely not for those involved in world-wide industrial projects from what I read & see happening. Many investors are obviously running scared and you can’t blame them with the endless media fear mongering going on and especially from the new US President and his so called dream team. What I see is possibly the greatest opportunity in our lifetimes for base metals mining investment and at unbelievable over-sold, fire-sale conditions. There’s a lot more for people to consider than just all the fearsome media & political commentary at work. Please bear with me and read on.

Consider These ‘Few’ Pertinent & Recent News Facts:

*Advanced Stage 2009 Industrial Project Activity For East Coast States Exceeds $85 Billion, accounting for only 28% of total US Industrial Project Activity. Mar. 03/09 Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*KBR Posts $88 Million Fourth-Quarter Profit:SUGAR LAND--March 3, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Engineering and construction firm KBR Incorporated (NYSE:KBR) (Houston, Texas) has reported a fourth-quarter 2008 net income of $88 million, up 23.9% year over year, on strong revenue across the board, especially in the Services business unit. Net income for the year totaled $319 million, compared with $302 million in 2007. As part of our International Industrial Database, Industrial Info is tracking 43 active projects worth $42.1 billion involving KBR. The largest of the projects is a $12 billion grassroot refinery in Saudi Arabia that Industrial Info has been monitoring since March 2006. Source: www.industrialinfo.com

*Welspun Gujarat Commissions Tubular Steel Pipe Facility in Arkansas:BANGALORE, INDIA--March 3, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Indian steel-pipe manufacturer Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren Limited (BSE:532144) (WGSRL)(Bharuch, Gujarat) recently commissioned an API-certified state-of-the-art tubular steel pipe mill in Little Rock, Arkansas. The new facility's pipe mill has the capacity to produce 300,000 tons of helically submerged arc-welded pipes. Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Bahia Mineracao Plans $1.6 Billion Iron Ore Project in Brazil:CORDOBA, ARGENTINA--February 3, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Brazilian mining company Bahia Mineracao Limitada (Salvador) is planning to develop a $1.6 billion iron ore project in the state of Bahia in northeastern Brazil. The Pedra de Ferro project, to be located about 32 kilometers south of the city of Caetite, entails the construction of an open pit mine and concentrator to process 25 million tons of iron ore per year.
Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Gazprom and Total Show Interest In Nigeria's Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline Network:GALWAY, IRELAND--March 3, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Nigeria's Trans-Sahara proposed gas pipeline project linking the African continent with the European Union is garnering unprecedented attention from leading global energy companies. Total SA (NYSE:TOT) (Paris, France) and OAO Gazprom (OTC:OGZPY) (Moscow, Russia) recently expressed interest in being associated with the 4,128-kilometer gas pipeline network that will connect Europe with Nigeria through Niger and Algeria. Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*MTA Pushes Forward with Phase I of $16 Billion Subway Project in New York City Creating Hundreds of Long-Term Construction Jobs:
SUGAR LAND--February 27, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--During a time of almost daily announcements of banks failing, industrial giants begging for federal financial aid and major companies initiating layoffs and job cuts of epic proportions, finding places where long-term employment is virtually guaranteed is a rarity. However, in downtown New York City, such a place exists thanks to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) (New York, New York) and its construction arm, MTA Capital Construction (New York)
Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Planned U.S. Industrial Project Starts at $301 Billion in 2009:SUGAR LAND--February 25, 2009--Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas) is currently tracking more than 5,300 industrial projects totaling $301 billion in the U.S. scheduled to begin construction in 2009. This number, while high, represents a 1.3% decrease in planned project starts that were measured for a similar study in 2008. Project fallout in 2009 is expected to be high as economic conditions force project owners to hold on to cash and defer projects out between six and 12 months. Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Northwest China's Shaanxi Province Nails Down 309 Key Construction Projects:
BEIJING--February 9, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In order to promote economic development, Northwest China's Shaanxi province has nailed down 309 key construction projects with a total estimated investment of $160 billion
Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Construction of CGNPC's $10.2 Billion Yangjiang Nuclear Power Project Progresses Smoothly: BEIJING--February 9, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Following the official kickoff on December 16, 2008, construction of the Yangjiang nuclear power project, the largest nuclear power project in China, has been progressing smoothly in southern China's Guangdong province. The majority of the civil work construction is complete, according to China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC) (Shenzhen). Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Vibrant Gujarat Summit Attracts Investments of $152.8 Billion Through 444 Commitments on Day One:BANGALORE, INDIA--January 19, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The prevalent worldwide financial crisis notwithstanding, the ongoing 4th Vibrant Gujarat Global Investors' Summit 2009 in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, saw 444 memorandums of understanding being signed on day one, with the nation's industrial movers and shakers pledging to invest $152.8 billion across several sectors in the state. The total value of investment commitments made on the first day exceeds what was pledged during the 3rd summit in January 2007, when 363 memorandums were signed for projects worth $94 billion. Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*China Power Investment Signs Agreement with Hunan Province to Develop $8.76 Billion in Power Projects:BEIJING--January 16, 2009--Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--China Power Investment Corporation (CPIC) (Beijing) and the government of Hunan province have signed a strategic-cooperation framework agreement for power projects in Hunan. According to the agreement, CPIC will invest $8.76 billion to promote the construction of power projects in the province. Source: www.Industrialinfo.com

*Note: You can receive free daily alerts from Industrial Info.com by subscription on their website. This is an invaluable tool when you try to gauge the economic pulse of the world in general.

*Worldwide Pipeline Report:
P&GJ's latest worldwide figures that indicate 160,136 miles of new and planned oil and gas pipelines are under construction and planned.
North American pipeline companies are planning and constructing 35,217 miles of oil and gas pipelines. The remaining 124,919 miles represent new and planned pipelines worldwide. (Source:) http://www.allbusiness.com/transportation/pipeline-transportation-oil-gas/11766171-1.html

*New Nuclear Reactors Worldwide:
-In the United States, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has now received combined licence applications for 26 new reactors

-Rising demand for electricity and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could drive an almost fourfold jump in nuclear power reactors under operation worldwide by 2050, the Paris-based Nuclear Energy Agency said last year.

-The agency forecast the number of functioning nuclear reactors in the world could rise to 1,400 by 2050, from 439 now, while nuclear power's share of total electricity production worldwide could grow to 22 percent, from 16 percent today

-China- Following the roll out of the State Council’s stimulus package, the National Energy Administration announced large sets of projects including power plants, oil refineries and a second west-east gas pipeline. Construction on the eastern section of the RMB142.2 billion pipeline began in February in Shenzhen. Construction on the western segment began last year and is expected to be completed by the end of 2009. When operational in 2011, the 8,704 kilometer pipeline will cross 15 regions and carry 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year to Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong and Hong Kong.

-The government has already approved the construction of 10 nuclear power reactors with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts each according to statements released by the NDRC last November. In addition, China plans to "start building eight more nuclear power plants in the next three years, with 16 reactors whose total installed capacity will surpass 10 GW," NEA officials told state media in early February.

*Infrastructure Spending to Jump Worldwide:
This year governments around the world will spend 2.9% of world GDP on infrastructure, up from 2.2% in 20087according to Infrastructure Investor, citing projections for 2009 compiled by consultancy CG/LA. Norman Anderson.

Washington D.C. based consulting firm, CG/LA. Norman Anderson, predicts global infrastructure spending will jump 0.7% this year (or increase by an additional $280 billion),according to Infrastructure Investor. The firm says the push for renewed infrastructure will be led by developed countries, although China (which unveiled plans in November 2008 to spend $586 billion on infrastructure investment over the next two years) will be a notable exception to this trend.

Right here at home, CG/LA foresees that the U.S. will carry out roughly $190 billion in infrastructure spending, notes Infrastructure Investor. The firm also believes that President Obama’s proposed Infrastructure Bank will become a reality.

China’s Infrastructure Spending:As I write this and was about to give a figure of the previously stated $600 Billion spending package that China had planned for 2009, I’m told they are going to update that figure publicly tomorrow. I’d bet odds money that $600 B will be increased substantially. We’ll see.

Ok! Enough of that for now. Considering that we have not even covered many of the Canadian, Russian, Brazilian, Indian, Saudi, African (etc) mega projects in the works as there are so many more examples of billions being spent in worldwide Industrial Projects thru and beyond 2009 that I could go on for pages.

The point is that all these projects and many, many others not mentioned herein (ie: Railroads in China, Bridge Construction projects, Refineries, Ship building, Military, etc etc) are going to weigh heavily on base metal demand this year and for years to come and current base metal supply has been curtailed big time over the last few months with mine closures and new mines dead in the water because they are unable to obtain Capex funding. This is fast becoming a huge set-up for rapid gains in Metals prices going forward. Keep in mind it isn’t just low metals prices that are spurring this growth. Most were in planning stages long before the down-turn and now with depressed metal prices there will likely be an onslaught of new ones coming to light.

Now Consider The Smart Money:
So where has the so-called “Smart Money” been moving over the 3-4 months?
Contrary to many retail investors knowledge it’s been flowing quite substantially into Private Placements and “Bought” financings in Jr & Mid-Cap mining Co’s. Consider that roughly speaking, over $400 M has been laid out in this sector over the recent 4 months, much of which has gone into the Jr’s with Gold & Base Metal projects of merit. Why is this happening when the mining sector is at what “appears” to be an all time low in terms of confidence & interest to the general investor? Because it ‘IS’ smart money and not unlike the continued investment in the Oil/Gas exploration sector, those who are quietly investing this money in Base Metal miners see what many don’t, and are just too nervous because of all the negativity out there.

I could give a long list of some of the co’s that have completed P/P’s and bought deals since Sept /08 up to the end of Feb/09 for those who want names but this editorial would become far to long. Let’s just say there are over 30 Jr’s in the mining sector that I found with little effort, all of whom have completed their Financings & P/P’s with no difficulty.

Most of these recent Jr financings have been in the range of $100K to $300-$400K and even a few whom garnered much more. If you’d like a list of some of those I’ve researched, or wish to participate in future Private Placements of Jr Gold & Base Metal companies I’m affiliated or involved with send me an email.

Bought Financings:
I myself had no realization that there were any “bought” financings currently being done until a little bird spoke to me and I started doing some research. We all know that when a financing is done as a “Bought” deal that somebody either knows something or they think they do and consequently the public doesn’t even have the opportunity to participate before it’s already done. To me this is a big confidence signal that things are not nearly as bad as many would have us believe. From all the data I can find the total amount of bought deals over the last 4 months is well over $5 Billion to a possible $7 or $8B if one digs deep enough. All this is being done with little to no fan-fare by mining media.

Related News:
Another fact just released by BNN.com today states that Canadians invested $1.8 Billion in Mutual Funds in Feb /09 alone. We all know that money goes straight into the stockmarket. Sounds to me like another sign of market confidence out there somewhere.

MetalBulletin.com 04 March 2009 11:29 LME: prices are well supported at present, with LMEX rising 2.8% day-on-day to 1,728. The appreciation is heavily influenced by expectations that China's stimulus packages will boost metals demand. Signs of a recovery of the nation's economy persist, with the February PMI (which is a proxy for metals demand) rebounding to 49.0, from 45.3 (values below 50 still reflect a contraction). The production sub-index rose to 51.2, showing expansion for the first time since June 2008.

Copper Today: Up $0.11 @ $1.70 p/lb. Stark contrast to price over the last few months. Copper is always considered the bell weather metal for growth, but then the Auto, Housing. & Commercial Const industry are the key end users of Copper, so maybe the Copper price may not give sufficient warning for higher Base Metal prices this time around.

More Infrastructure/Copper News Just Out:
Copper Jumps to 3-Month High; China May Boost Stimulus Spending
By Millie Munshi
March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices surged to the highest in three months on signs that China will boost government spending to revive its economy, increasing metal demand.
Premier Wen Jiabao will announce a new stimulus package tomorrow, adding to an earlier 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan, said Li Deshui, a former central bank policy maker. China is the world’s biggest metal consumer. Copper prices jumped 5.8 percent yesterday on speculation China’s consumption will climb.

US, China Economic Projects To Increase International Copper Demand

www.chinaview.cn 2009-03-04 18:20:43

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis
LUSAKA, March 4 (Xinhua) -- Zambia's Standard Chartered Bank has said the stimulus package in the United States and China will increase demand for copper and prices should appreciate, Zambia Daily Mail reported on Wednesday.
The 787 billion U.S. dollars stimulus package in the United States will include expenditure on copper-intensive projects such as public transport and school buildings while China has a stimulus package of 568 billion dollars to boost the infrastructure market, which is copper-intensive, the newspaper said.

China's Spending Spree Likely To Include Canadian Companies
Duncan Mavin, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, March 04, 20
HONG KONG - Asia's dealmakers say a Chinese resource spending spree will accelerate throughout the next 12 months, with Canadian mining and energy companies likely on the shopping list.

Chinese buyers have already scooped up US$70-billion worth of global resource assets so far this year, as Beijing looks to secure its energy and resource future by spending some of its US$2-trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

The overseas buying trend will pick up steam in the months ahead, according to China and Hong Kong-based corporate dealmakers, investment bankers and private equity players surveyed by Royal Bank of Scotland and Mergermarket. (Excerpt)

In Summation, I’d say for any investor looking to regain some of the massive stock market losses we’ve all had, one should take a much broader look at fundamentals of worldwide industrial growth and quit dwelling on the financial turmoil & negativity caused by Wall St & Bankers greed, Politicians endless posturing, as well as the turmoil caused by the mortgage crisis and keep your eyes focused on how and why growth in all the varied industrial sectors of the World will be the main factor for renewed and possible rapid & sharp increases in the demand and pricing of Base Metals in the months ahead. There are exceptional Jr Miners with base metal projects out there trading for mere pennies compared to last two years highs.

Some predict Wars, others predict the end of Fiat money, the Banking system and World-wide depression or even worse. Well folks, “Chicken Little” is a children’s fictional character and the Sky isn’t falling from my contrarian viewpoint, but Base Metals are finite and the world grows and moves steadily onward regardless of anyone’s prognostications, including my own.

As Always; Thanks for reading & best of luck in your investments:

Best Regards: Ken Reser
Research & Investor Relations Consultant
ykgold@telus.net
Office Ph: 403-844-2914
Email me to be added to my free editorial subscription

If It Sounds Too Good To Be True...

2009-03-05T12:54:00.000-08:00

I'm sorry, I shouldn't laugh, but I can't help it.

Every time another Bernie Madoff pops up, people act so shocked and surprised. The press has a field day lamenting the losses and discussing the lurid details. Government representatives run amok, trying to capitalize on the moment. Authors run around trying to be the first out with the "big book".

Guys like Madoff have been around since the beginning of time. They operate on one basic, totally reliable premise - Human Greed.

As the old saying goes, "If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is". But guys like Madoff know that greed is so inherently entrenched in the human psyche that their victims will rationalize away all reason & constraint to get in on "the big score". That's why we have indelible sayings entrenched in our culture like "A sucker and his money are soon parted".

Of course, when a Madoff is discovered the public is incensed and demands "government action" to prevent a recurrence. Government can do what it will, but such people will still prey upon the public successfully as long as greed exists. The best defense is common sense. Unfortunately, some people throw that out the window all too willingly.

These guys know human nature, and they play to it very well. They find a means of insinuating themselves into a group, put up a front of "success", and target the weakest-willed members. As they bring early "marks" in, they encourage them to recruit others. Just seeing that others are already involved, and listening to the "fabulous success stories" will get many people to overrule common sense and join the herd. It's classic con-man tactics; and that's all Madoff and his kind are. Unfortunately, the bigger the con, the faster and harder some people will fall for it. Big organizations fall for it too - because they're run by fallible humans.

So the next time someone tells you about a "fabulous opportunity", try to back up, ask questions, and use the good judgement that's served you so well in the other aspects of your life. We can all get caught up in a moment. That's why it's good to resist the urge for immediate action and sleep on it. Con-men fear this. That's why they always say things like "if you don't act now you'll miss out". If it's such a good deal, it will still be around tomorrow.

Don't be one of the "sheep".

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors
http://www.awalsh.us

Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook Survey Results

2009-03-04T06:58:00.000-08:00

I just participated in the latest Duke University CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, and received advance notification of the results.

Following is an extract of key survey results:

CFOs express record or near-record pessimism. On a scale of 0 to 100, U.S. CFOs rate the economic outlook at an all-time low of 40. European and Asian CFOs are similarly pessimistic, rating their economies at 43 and 47, respectively, on a scale of 0 to 100.

Only 35 percent of CFOs say the U.S. economic recovery will begin in 2009, with most CFOs expecting recovery to begin in 14 months.

European (16 months) and Asian CFOs (13 months) also expect the recession to last well into 2010.Domestic employment is expected to fall in the U.S. (5.6 percent reduction), Europe (7.6 percent reduction), and Asia (3.2 percent reduction) over the next year. In addition to layoffs, a majority of firms report wage freezes or cuts, as well as reductions in hours worked.

Nearly 60 percent of U.S. companies indicate they will institute a hiring freeze for the next year. In addition, 57 percent will enforce a wage freeze or reduction, with one in five companies expecting to reduce wages over the next year. Even for those employees who keep their jobs, 39 percent will work fewer hours per week.

Nearly two-thirds of European companies indicate they will institute a hiring freeze over the next year, and 57 percent will freeze or reduce wages. Almost one-third of companies say they will reduce work hours for remaining employees. More than 60 percent will reduce their workforce, with the average reduction among those firms being 9 percent.

More than two-thirds of Asian firms plan a hiring freeze for the next 12 months. Sixty-three percent plan a wage freeze or wage reduction. In addition, 30 percent of Asian CFOs say their firms will reduce the hours worked by employees who retain their jobs.

More than two-thirds of Chinese companies will impose a hiring freeze this year, and 30 percent will reduce wages. One-third will reduce the hours worked by retained employees.

Weak consumer demand and financial market woes are major external concerns for CFOs around the world. Working capital management is a primary internal concern, as is maintaining employee productivity and morale.

Credit market turmoil is still buffeting the corporate sector, with the effects much worse on companies with poor credit ratings. About 40 percent of companies rated AAA or AA indicate credit market conditions are hurting their firms. Among companies rated B or lower, 77 percent say they have been hurt.

U.S. Companies rated B or lower have nearly maxed out credit lines, drawing on average 70 percent of the maximum. AAA and AA rated firms, in contrast, have drawn only 27 percent of the maximum. Among Chinese companies with bank lines of credit, the average firm has drawn 56 percent of the maximum allowed.

Fifty-eight percent of European CFOs report problems with suppliers, ranging from 40 percent of suppliers being unable to obtain trade credit or bank financing to 21 percent of companies having a supplier go out of business.

Fifty-five percent of Asian CFOs report problems with suppliers, with many not receiving enough order volume to be viable. This has led to a consolidation of orders with stronger suppliers at nearly half of Asian firms.

Forty-six percent of Asian CFOs expect their own country’s economy to begin to recover in 2009, and another 29 percent expect the recovery to begin in the first half of 2010.
Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors
Huntington Beach, Ca
http://www.awalsh.us/

Recapping the Economic Situation

2009-03-01T16:09:00.000-08:00

This seems like a good moment to summarize and discuss our current economic dilemma.

The 500 lb gorilla in the room is still the lack of financial liquidity. Despite government efforts to infuse cash into banks by buying up their decrepit assets, the liquidity crisis continues. The question arises as to how much more government can do to break the logjam. Discussions are now wandering to government acquisition of ownership interests in banking institutions. I don't see this problem going away anytime soon. The true condition of bank balance sheets is a closely-guarded secret, but I suspect that they're in much worse condition than they or the government want us to know. The fact that they're still not lending is a pretty clear signal.

The liquidity crisis has swept through the economy, with housing, retail, manufacturing, services and John Q Public all feeling the pinch. The UK is in similar dire straits, with the Bank of England now talking about going to 0% interest rates in attempt to break the logjam there. The economic woes are spreading globally, and jobs are vanishing at an accelerating pace.

One has to wonder how much longer the US dollar, and most other currencies for that matter, can continue to maintain any integrity in the face of the massive money-supply generation by the various central banks. After all, there's nothing backing these currencies other than faith. At some point, massive inflation has to kick in; a lovely prospect when already dealing with economic deflation. I suppose when nobody's buying anything anymore, then maybe inflation won't be such a big concern.

Wall Street is a shell of its former self, having absorbed everyone's wealth into the black hole. We won't be hearing much from them until the liquidity crisis is resolved, and then they'll probably think of some new "creative" way to screw things up.

One of the problems we face is that we must rely on the Treasury and the Fed to work in unison to resolve the key liquidity issue. That's like putting the Fox in charge of the Henhouse. These people come from the very same finance houses that they're supposed to be overseeing, and they haven't exactly established a sterling record of acting in the best interests of the nation. Secrecy, deception, and self-interest seem to be the order of the day.

Surprises continue to arise from strange quarters. The recent derivatives problem in Eastern Europe placed strain on Western European banks, and may yet spill over into the US. The multi-trillion derivatives mess continues to hang out there, threatening to explode at any time and take the whole house of cards down. Who knows just how big that mess is, because it's largely unregulated and done in privacy. I think the government knows, but they're not talking. So many "creative" investment instruments have been created, and spread so far & wide, that it's hard to gauge the depth or breadth of threats hanging over our heads.

I continue to maintain that it's a misnomer to refer to the current situation as a "recession". This feels more like a "depression", a unique one like we've never experienced before. Even the so-called government and finance house experts seem to be at a loss about what to do.

Obama is following the Roosevelt formula of big government spending - largely, I suspect, because he has no other model to follow. He reminds me a bit of a GI in a foxhole facing a frontal attack - once in a while he pops up & throws a grenade, then slides back down and prays it works. Time will tell how effective his plan is, but I suspect a great deal of it is misguided government boondoggling. The Congress is a sea of lost souls looking for a savior to show the way. The finance house leaders are hanging on to their government-provided funds for dear life, scared to death that people will find out just how weak they really are.

All in all, the sky's not falling - but it still could. These are strange times we live in, and it's not a good time to be blase about keeping tabs on events. Be aware. Be cautious. Dig in; it's going to be a bumpy ride. Take care of #1. Buy Gold.

But hey, Bernanke says things are getting better and we'll be out of the recession this year. If you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you - cheap!

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Think Gold's Reached It's Top? - Think Again!

2009-02-25T15:31:00.000-08:00

Many so-called financial experts have been spouting off of late, declaring that Gold has reached it's top. Given the admission of former Assistance Treasury Secretary Paul Craig Roberts that the government leases its Gold for sale to hold the price down, we might be tempted to believe these pronouncements. But think again.

Goldman Sachs, the ultimate stalwart of Gold short-selling for years (on the TOCOM to limit visibility) has now eliminated all of it's Gold short positions. Given their long propensity for selling Gold short, I can't help taking note of this historical shift in position; which has been developing for some time.

With the dollar on life-support, and our government running the printing presses at break-neck speed, I suspect that Goldman has seen the writing on the wall and decided to go with the Gold trend before it rolls over them (a trend which they've been trying to squelch for years).

If you feel the same way I do about the economy, you won't listen to the anti-Gold establishment for a second. I've been betting against them for five years, quite successfully, despite governments best efforts to thwart me. Those governments are their own worst enemies. Remember a short time back when the UK sold a large chunk of their Gold reserve for a fraction of today's market value? A foolishly-concocted manipulative act, perhaps? Bet they wish they had it back!

Despite the best secret government efforts to hold Gold down, the self-destructive actions of those same governments toward their own currencies have made Gold a very attractive alternative.

These are strange times, and one has to exercise due diligence in accepting the statements of authority figures or Wall Street pundits. They don't have your best interests at heart. They never have.

Government Duplicity Unearthed

2009-02-25T15:26:00.000-08:00

It's been no secret that the U.S. Government and the Fed have used the U.S. Dollar as a manipulative tool since World War II and the ascendency of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency. Massive quantities of totally unbacked "fiat" U.S. currency, and corresponding debt, have been created and forced down the throats of foreign nations to pay for our deficit spending. Many stories have been told about economic dirty tricks used against foreign nations; friend and foe. Other duplicitous acts have been widely acknowledged, such as the government's tinkering with economic data to convey false messages.

But to what extent has the government been willing to go? A small group of studious people have been following the action in the Gold market for years and saying that the government manipulates the Gold market to prop up the dollar (holding the price down to discourage people and nations from holding Gold instead of US dollars). The mainstream financial media has pretty much shut these people out; treating them like crank extremists. But now we have concrete proof in the form of a clear statement (in an essay) by a former Treasury official - Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Treasury Secretary - who states unequivacably that the manipulation is real:

"How long can the U.S. government protect the dollar's value by leasing its gold to bullion dealers who sell it, thereby holding down the gold price? Given the incompetence in Washington and on Wall Street, our best hope is that the rest of the world is even less competent and even in deeper trouble. In this event, the US dollar might survive as the least valueless of the world's fiat currencies."

There it is - at last - out in the light of day for all to see.

Numerous thoughts come to mind in the light of this clear admission.

Just how much Gold is left in government coffers? We don't know because they keep it a dark secret.

If the Gold supply has been seriously compromised, just how naked and unbacked is the US dollar? - not that it had much backing anyway given the massive dollar growth.

In light of this admission, how true are the many accusations that the government manipulates other markets (securities, commodities, forex, etc) for the same purpose? So much for Free Markets!

Given the rampant greed and stupidity of late that has brought the US dollar nearly to its knees, just how close to collapse is it? - and how vulnerable are we to naked manipulation from offshore? Our robber-baron tactics of the last several decades have made many enemies who would like to see us get our come-uppance.

How much longer can the government and the Fed throw money around to prop up the banks & economy before all faith and confidence in the dollar is lost? The answer of government to all situations for decades has been to create more dollars and corresponding debt. At some point we're going to run out of takers for that debt. I think we're right at the edge.

How much more duplicity is going on that we haven't uncovered yet?

These are the questions that reach to the core of our current financial dilemma. In light of this, how can citizens have any faith that the government is equipped to clean up the mess that it and its finance house accomplices have created?

How can a citizen know what to do with the waning wealth that we still marginally control?

Given the known duplicity of our government, and the eagerness with which they've indebted us to bail out the banks, how can we have any faith that they're looking out for our interests?

I've barely touched the surface of the nonsense that's been going on. I fear for us, and I fear for our children. Be aware. Be cautious. Buy Gold. Despite the best efforts of government(s) to hold the Gold price down, it has risen to reflect the devaluation of the dollar as a store of wealth; and will continue to do so as long as our government and others continue down the self-destructive path they've been following.

Bernanke's Lost all Touch with Reality

2009-02-25T15:22:00.000-08:00

I don't usually react too much to the nonsense and outright propaganda that come out of the government or the Fed about the economy, but Fed Chairman Bernanke's remarks today sent me into a frothing fit. What has that man been smoking?

He actually had the gall to say words to the effect that things are getting better and we may end the recession this year.

Where do I begin? First, I don't think we're in a recession - but a depression. If it's a recession, it's the darndest one I've ever seen or heard of. Our banks are bankrupt. Liquidity has dried up all over the world. Domestic manufacturing is in the toilet. Real Estate just keeps sliding lower. Retail is shutting down. Millions of jobs are going away. Government does the only thing it knows how to do -spend money; poorly.

I've said for some time that the government doesn't know what to do, and they just keep putting up a false front, hoping that somehow the whole thing will go away. The Fed seems to be no different. By the way, in case you didn't already know it the Fed isn't part of the government. It's a private bank, owned by banks, and operated for the benefit of banks - that just happens to have a monopoly on U.S. monetary policy. I still say that the Fed needs to go. I'll scream it from the mountain tops if it will help make it happen. Bernanke's latest remarks just make my point for me.

I can hardly wait to see what the President puts out tonight. On one hand, he doesn't want to be blamed for this mess so he'll continue to warn that we face difficult times ahead. On the other hand, he doesn't want to sound too alarmist. He's got a fine line to walk.

Negotiating – The ABC’s

2009-02-25T15:20:00.000-08:00

In order to progress, most corporate managers have to develop negotiating skills at some point in their career. Negotiation is a learned skill. You’re not born with it. Here’s some thoughts that I’ve learned.

In case you didn’t realize it, you negotiate all the time; at work, at home, and in public. My wife can hardly wait to get down to Mexico and dicker with the shopkeepers. It’s in the blood for many of us. Even if it’s not “in your blood”, you might have more skill than you know. As you read through the following tips, think about it.

Many urban myths revolve around this topic – the most prevalent being that you have to be one of the “chatty beautiful people” to be a success. We’ve all known them, the “Ken” or Barbie” people who have the flawless looks and the glib communications style. We’re a “beauty-oriented” society, so these traits can help speed careers or open doors. But often these traits can be distractions in a negotiation – especially if they’re talking too much and not listening.

Some of the most effective negotiators I’ve known are quiet, earnest people who seldom speak unless they have something meaningful to say. These people share an almost universal trait; they’re good listeners, while being circumspect in their speech.

A basic rule of effective negotiation is to keep your position “close to the vest”. Don’t blab your intentions, or your goals, or your “power cards’ to the other side. Let them make their own assumptions, and then play to those assumptions. Let them tell you what they think they know about you, and then use their mistaken perceptions to advantage.

Listen! Listen! Listen! If you’re talking, you’re divulging information to the other side that you probably shouldn’t. Let the other side do that. You listen & learn. If you must speak, try to draw them out – and then shut up. You’d be amazed what some people will divulge if you just go quiet and give them enough rope to “hang” themselves. This is especially true if they’re an inexperienced, nervous negotiator; which covers a lot of folks.

Don’t get emotionally involved. As soon as you do, the other guy has an advantage. Try to convey the aura that you’re a concerned person who cares about creating a “win-win’ situation – but privately, don’t care that much. If you get emotionally involved, you won’t be very effective. If you don’t, negotiating will be a lot more fun; with a better outcome.

Don’t go into the negotiation with a high-brow attitude. If anything, let them assume you’re a little insecure and/or incompetent. Your posed posture will encourage them to draw incorrect conclusions, bluster, and let their guard down. Let them be impressed afterward when they realize the outcome of the negotiation. If they don’t figure it out, and think they won, all the better for next time.

Never let yourself be intimidated. You may want to give the impression that you are intimidated to throw the other guy off, but inside you should remain unruffled. It’s tried all the time, and it will work if you let it. Big companies like to intimidate small ones, powerful people intimidate the weak, etc. Just remember that we’re all naked under our clothes. If someone tries a “take it or leave it” stance with you, immediately throw out a counter-proposal. There’s something in human nature that virtually guarantees a counter-proposal in return, and off you go! Never take No! or “Take-it-or-leave it!” as a final answer. Counter-propose them to death.

Never reveal your worst-case acceptable negotiating stance. If you must let the negotiation get to that point, let the other party say it. Always start with your best possible stance, or higher, and make them work you down. You’ll probably be pleasantly surprised at the outcome.

Never take it for granted what the other party knows, or wants, or is willing to live with. Let them tell you; while you keep your knowledge & stance as private as possible.

Negotiation is as much about the people as the facts, and almost everything is negotiable. You probably already know most of the facts going in, so concentrate on the people during the negotiation process. Humans are funny creatures, and a little attention to them can reap big rewards. Watch and listen to the other party. If they’re impatient, drag out time and use it to your advantage. Most parties enter into negotiations with flawed assumptions and overblown goals. Use time to bring matters down to the realm of reality. Keep in mind that the other party probably won’t shift toward a more desirable posture until the last second. Be patient. If you see a situation developing that will inevitably end up in negotiation, don’t wait – strike while the “iron is hot”. Gather you facts, and act. By taking the initiative, you may well catch the other party off-guard and gain advantage. Watch the other party, wait for signs of what makes them “tick” and play to it. You’d be amazed how shallow some people can be; especially people who are obsessed with their own importance. Let them be important. Help them be important. You concentrate on the negotiation itself.

Many so-called experts will tell you that the goal of all negotiations should be “win-win”, whatever that is. I say the objective is to come away with the best possible outcome. If ther other party wants to “give the store away”, let them. Obviously I’m not promoting the Simon LeGree posture of shafting the disadvantaged. I’m talking about business negotiations, and in that arena: “all’s fair in love & war”.

Learn from the other party. If you sense that they’re playing you, protect yourself and then learn from them. Just being aware that you’re being played is the best protection.

My final bit of advice – have fun. Negotiation is a creative process that affords you the opportunity to utilize a wide variety of talents in a fluid situation. Don’t just go for the status quo – reach for the sky.

These are just a few thoughts on the subject, but they cover a lot of ground and should provide the basic platform for anyone to become an effective negotiator.

Good Luck. Enjoy Yourself. Grow and Prosper with It.

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Strategic and Operational Thinking in Business, Career & Life

2009-02-22T18:34:00.000-08:00

Don't get so caught up in the hype that you lose sight of the purpose.

"Strategic Thinking" is a phrase that gets thrown around a lot these days. Job candidates try to impress that they're "Strategic Thinkers". MBA programs tout their complex programs designed to make one a better "Strategic Thinker". IT systems praise the aspects of their offerings that will improve management's ability to “Strategically Manage”. Fancy acronyms and phrases get thrown around freely.

I've found that many people are so caught up in the acronyms, and the systems, and the hype, that they've lost sight of - or never clearly understood - what strategic & operational thinking is about. Some people I talk to don't seem to understand the difference between the two, and tend to look at those who are “Strategic Thinkers” with a "reverent awe"; as if they hold the secrets of the universe.

This article will attempt to discuss the subject from a straight-forward, common-sense approach that leaves the systems, the acronyms, and the hype behind.

Simply-put, operational thinking is primarily concerned with the here & now, whereas strategic thinking is forward-focused and broader in scope. Strategic thinking leads operational thinking by its very nature. Both are focused on goals, but operational thinking is primarily focused on practical "here & now" actions that will achieve the broader goals set by strategic thinking.
Strategic thinkers are almost totally focused on the future, often reaching well-ahead; like a chess player planning several moves ahead to set-up a winning strategy. They're thinking ahead to the next year, five-years, ten-years, and beyond to determine where they want to be; and determining the strategy to get there. Their thinking is broad in scope, and the farther out they reach - the more nebulous the operational aspects become.

Operational thinkers in business are concerned with providing products & services now, obtaining the materials necessary to the job, dealing with current customer needs, dealing with current administrative issues, and so forth. Their thinking takes somewhat of a forward-look, but usually only to the extent of keeping the current processes flowing smoothly, improving on them, and meeting the goals set by the strategic thinkers. Operating thinking is detailed and “now-focused” in nature.

In business, the CEO is usually the primary strategic thinker; with input from others and support from the Board. The COO, Production & Procurement managers, and others usually set the operational modus operandi for meeting the strategic goals.

A new CEO might assess his $20MM firm and decide that he wants to take it to a $100MM firm in five years. Usually, the first place he'll go is Marketing, to assess whether the market is there and necessary sales objectives can be reached. So far, this is strategic thinking. But then the CEO must consult with others - Sales, Production, Procurement, etc. - to determine what resources would be required, and whether or not the various functions could successfully support such a goal. Right away, operational thinking kicks in. Any strategic plan usually involves a back & forth flow between strategic & operational concerns. The CFO is usually steeped in both; being concerned with supporting & sanity-checking the operational thinking, providing adequate capitalization to achieve the strategic goal, and helping the CEO define that goal; plus helping the CEO in his communications with the Board & investors.

There are many IT tools available these days; most of which claim to provide significantly-improved information for business management. My experience is that these tools are still primarily focused on operationally-oriented business process improvement (BPI). Certain strategic inroads have been made in the financial & customer relationship arenas, but when supporting the effort of strategic thinkers I still find that there's lots of spreadsheet & free-form work involved. As IT capabilities continue to grow, this limitation is slowly changing.

Some people would have you believe that both strategic & operational thinking are "new concepts", and that they're going to "enlighten you" - even though both forms of thinking are as old as mankind itself. These people are usually trying to sell some product or service.

Strategic & operational thinking have their place in every aspect of life. Strategic thinking determines the broad goals to be accomplished, and operational thinking determines how you're going to get there. Neither approach is exclusive of the other. By necessity, each mode of thinking must address certain realities presented by the other.

In business, managers at every level should be engaging in strategic thinking to a certain extent. Even if others are setting the major strategic goals for the company, you as a middle-manager should be thinking about intermediate and long-range goals you want to set within your area of responsibility. Don't get so caught up in the day-to-day operational "flak" that you lose sight of "the forest for the trees". Take a step back now & then and look at the big picture.

The same is true for career & life planning. Think of yourself as the CEO of your own personal "company". Who knows, your strategic goal might be to actually someday become the CEO of your own company. Take stock of where you are, where you want to be, and make plans to get from here to there. The "where you want to be" part is the strategic goal. The "how to get there" aspect is the operational plan. Everyone should have goals and be working toward them. As in business, you'll have to periodically review and adjust those strategic goals - and your operational plans - to the realities of the moment. The times we’re currently in provide a classic case in point. Many people are having to adjust their planning to the ugly realities of the moment. But that doesn’t mean you abandon your strategic goals. You just have to make some short-term operational adjustments to “survive and fight another day”. Who knows, you might even find during your “survival phase” that a new & better strategic objective pops up on your “radar”.

So there it is. Businesses and individual humans have been engaging in both forms of thinking since the beginning of time - long before computers, MBA programs, fancy acronyms, and hype. The process is always the same - set goals, and determine how to get there.

Good Luck,

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Negotiating – The ABC’s

2009-02-22T18:32:00.000-08:00

A Survival Guide for Strange Times

2009-02-21T13:41:00.000-08:00

It’s a jungle out there.

Every day brings more grim economic news. Layoffs are rampant, and many more are coming. I’m a business advisor, and I track economics & finance as part of my routine, so I feel confident in stating that I’m farther ahead than most in understanding what’s going on. I wish I had good news about what to expect going forward, but I think we’re in for many more nasty surprises to come and it’s going to take a long time to dig out. Surprises are coming from strange places. Just yesterday I wrote an article about a Forex derivatives problem in Eastern Europe that’s threatening to spill over into the Western European banks. They’re already talking about a $ Multi-Billion bailout from the U.S.

So where does all of this leave you?

• If you have a job, hang onto it for dear life. Do everything you can to make yourself useful and build your image. It’s never too late.
• If you lost your job, look for whatever you can get. This is not a time to be proud. A paycheck’s a paycheck.
• Conserve your wealth, move it out of anything that could be considered risky, and cut your spending to a minimum. Save if possible.
• If you have the wherewithal to eliminate or reduce debt – do it.
• Don’t just sit there – be active on the internet. Network. Read & Learn. Look for niche opportunities. There’s a wealth of information & resources out there if you take the time to look for it. Most of it is free.
• Don’t sit in a corner and sulk. This is not the time. You’re not unique; you’ve got lots of company out there.
• Don’t be shy about seeking someone to talk to. Being able to talk through your problems will help unburden you and keep you focused on the positive. The right attitude is going to see a lot of people through.
• Get a full night’s sleep. Don’t pace through the house. You need your energy and a clear mind.
• Don’t look for “big brother’ to bail you out. Ain’t gonna’ happen. Big brother’s got enough problems of his own.

These are strange times we’re living in, and you have to assume the worst so that you’re not caught flat-footed.

If you’re snickering at me right now because you think I’m overreacting – wake up and look around you.

If you’re thinking that the sky is falling, it’s not that bad; but it’s certainly not one of the mild little recessions we’ve been accustomed to. There are real dangers out there.

Keep your options open, stay alert, be creative, be productive, conserve, and you’ll get through this.

Good Luck,

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Surprise - Here We Go Again!

2009-02-20T15:42:00.000-08:00

The parade of economic surprises continues. Seems like they're almost daily now - a sure sign of building stresses and a possible wide-spread breakdown.

It seems now that the government may have to nationalize the biggest banks to keep them afloat - Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are mentioned. Could happen over this weekend.

So now the Treasury will be exposed to all the liabilities (who knows how much - it's a secret) on these banks' books. Guess who gets the bill for that America?

I bet major depositors will be pulling money out left & right because they don't want it under government control. When government gets control of something, it tends to disappear.

If you haven't got the message yet that things are rotten out there, it's time NOW!

I'm sure there are many more surprises to come. Protect yourself.

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors
http://www.awalsh.us

Economic "Surprises" - What Did I Say?

2009-02-19T15:19:00.000-08:00

The fun just goes on and on.

I've been issuing warnings that there were going to be many "Surprises" this year. I last warned about the new "Surprise" from Eastern Europe involving a multi-Billion Forex derivatives crisis that could spill over into the West. I commented that America would at the very least have to perform a huge bail-out.

So what do I hear today when I'm listening to one of the financial TV shows? The European banks are in trouble because of Eastern Europe - and are looking for the U.S. to bail them out.
Here we go again. Another "Surprise" that's going to involve Billions in bail-out money, more debt, and eventually more taxes.

Just how many dollars can we throw around before the whole house of cards collapses? The buck's only worth what we decide, and faith has been ebbing pretty low of late.

Of course, one of the Wall Street pundits immediately jumped in and pronounced words to the effect that "it's no big deal". Yeah! Right!

I don't know about you, but I smell lots of trouble ahead and I caution you all to take great care with your personal financial affairs. We don't know when or where the next "Surprises" will come from - but I'm sure they're coming.

Think For Yourself ! Be Aware! Don't Just Listen to the Wall Street Punduits!

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors
http://www.awalsh.us

Doing Business - Put a Little Flair Into It!

2009-02-19T12:37:00.000-08:00

Would a little color really hurt?

I started my business career in the late 1970s. At that time, a trend was starting to develop that carried through the 1980's; mainly in large corporations.

In a nutshell, companies were squashing individuality, and institutionalizing uniformity - in executives, in employees, in products, in processes, in marketing, and in their public personas.
It was rooted in a desire to cut costs, avoid controversy, and find the "perfect across-the-board management style". The advent of more & more powerful Business Process Systems spurred it on to some extent. This philosophy is still prevalent in many businesses today.

I'm convinced that General Motors created the root problem which has brought them to their current sorry-state by enacting this philosophy. The "finance mentality" took over from the designers, causing a set of actions that culminated in boring cars, reduced creativity, stultifying parts & manufacturing uniformity, and a drop in quality. The Divisions, which had previously bred wide-spread innovation in their zeal to compete with each other and differentiate themselves, were reduced to sad look-alikes. The whole company took on a pathetic "vanilla" flavor which persists to this day. Car shows used to be a "rite of passage", with fathers & sons and buddies eagerly rushing down for a peek at the new designs. Those days are long gone. Just a vestige of a bygone era? I don't think so. I think it's management gone awry. Look around and tell me if you don't see the same conditions in other companies today.

Yes, companies must be cost-effective. Yes, they must exert certain disciplines. Yes, the Business Process Systems of today tend to enforce certain constraints. And yes, certain outside factors restrict freedom of action (such as federal standards which restrict the design-freedom of auto manufacturers). But ultimately businesses are run by humans (or mismanaged as the case may be). They are the ultimate decision makers, and they have choices - or at least should have. The "machines" are just dumb tools.

If companies are to differentiate themselves from the "herd", the humans who run them must have a little freedom of action.

The most effective executives & managers I've known are colorful people who bring personal style to their work.

The most effective organizations I've worked with have a variety of colorful people who bring varying perspectives; sometimes fighting like cats & dogs. A smart CEO who learns to channel disagreement constructively will have a healthier & more productive team.

At every level, people are more effective when they're given some latitude to approach their work in the way that best suits them.

Internal competition, if properly channeled, is healthy.

Designers and innovators need some latitude. They're the ones who build the company's present & future.

Companies are ill-served by leaders & employees who are performing "mechanically".

The people who shape the company's outward image - from both product and corporate standpoints - should be looking for every clever way to differentiate themselves from their competition.

The zeal to control costs & profits should not be allowed to reach such a state that the producers & creators are stifled.

Business Process Improvement (BPI) Systems can help ensure that you're "Doing It Right", but it's up to humans to ensure that you're "Doing The Right Thing" (the subject of a recent article). In their zeal to "Do It Right", some companies impose so many restrictions on the humans that it's no longer possible to "Do The Right Thing"; or it gets lost in the "noise".

Corporate culture starts at the top. So ask yourself Mr. CEO, what kind of company do you want? - a "GM-style automaton" - or a living, breathing, fighting, competing, creating, innovating, unique, colorful organization that has flair seeping from every pore?

Given the unique and ominous challenges we're facing in the current economy, this question takes on more importance than ever before.

What's your opinion? If you think I'm "full of it" - tell me why.

Regards,
Al Walsh, Owner/Founder - Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Business Process Improvement - Is It?

2009-02-19T09:56:00.000-08:00

Be careful what you wish for. You may get it.

Business Process Improvement (BPI) has become so wide-spread and deeply rooted nowadays that at some companies it's almost BECOME the business. The flagship approach is ERP, which is being applied at a break-neck pace throughout the business community. Massive resources have been redirected to it's implementation in company after company. Companies are being forced to implement it up and down the supply-chain.

According to Wikipedia, the goal of BPI is "Doing It Right". This is not to be confused with "Doing the Right Thing" - which is the primary focus of this article.

In their zeal to "Do It Right", I suggest that many companies are taking a short-sighted view - and are either reinforcing mediocrity, or are unintentionally driving themselves backwards. This is what happens when "Doing It Right" causes you to stop or avoid "Doing The Right Thing".

ERP systems can have wonderful effects on a business if applied properly. But they are expensive, time & resource consuming, and tend to make the humans their slaves. All the claims about how useful ERP can be as an information and business management tool are correct; IF executed properly (and that's a big "IF"). But there's a high price to pay. When the "Beast" is running the humans, as WILL happen to some extent, I say you've got a big problem. That's just one of many ways things can go wrong. Then there's the issue of what happens when you don't implement it properly. "Garbage In - Garbage Out" rapidly occurs, and you lose control of your business - at "ERP-Speed".

Before you select and install that "Monster", do a little human-work first. Think about whether you're "Doing the Right Thing" - and if not, fix it.

Only then, after you're "Doing the Right Thing", should you think about implementing the system and "Doing it Right". Remember, ERP doesn't tell you what to do. That's for the humans to decide. ERP merely helps you "Do It Better". Make sure that in the process of implementing ERP and "Doing it Right", you don't stop "Doing the Right Thing".

When you DO decide to implement, make sure your people understand what they're trying to accomplish. I'm not talking about the systems training - I'm talking about understanding the purpose and the goal. Unless they do, they'll approach the work mechanically - and you'll wind up with a mess on your hands.

If you follow this mental discipline, instead of just rushing willy-nilly into the ERP "Pit" with the rest of the herd, you might actually wind up with results that are worth the effort. You'll be "Doing The Right Thing", and reinforcing it by "Doing It Right".

I've learned that in major Systems implementations, there needs to be an Overseer who can understand the goals, communicate them clearly, and monitor progress to ensure those goals are being accomplished. The Users have to understand what the end-game is, via the Overseer. Don't count on the Techies to run the show. They have their own viewpoint & priorities, their challenges are demanding enough, and they're not the right people to oversee the Users. The Techies own the system. The Users own the input and product. The Overseer has to work both groups simultaneously, and guide the process from above the fray.

Good Luck
Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

The Year of Economic Surprises - Another Surprise

2009-02-17T10:16:00.000-08:00

Be aware. Don't get caught flat-footed.

I've warned before that this year was going to be one of economic surprises, and another one has popped up which you should be keenly aware of.

It seems that Eastern Europe is in trouble because of corporate forex (foreign exchange currency) derivative exposure on a massive scale. Derivatives are a dangerous, highly-leveraged form of investment that can turn sour rapidly, and in this case they apparently have; Big-Time.

One financial expert, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, warns that the growing crisis in Eastern Europe could cause nothing less than a total collapse in the West: "If one spark jumps across the euro zone line, we will have global systemic crisis within days".

To put things into perspective, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Jen states: Eastern Europe has borrowed a total of $1,700 billion abroad, about $400 billion of which debt has to be rolled over this year - a number equivalent to about 1/3 of the region's GDP.

Bloomberg reports that "an unwind is taking place right now that may or may not be contained by international Central Bank action".

As Jim Sinclair states in his JSMineset: Even if Central Europe does not financially implode the world money system today, it is just around the corner. There are so many risks threatening us now that survival of any monetary status-quo is doubtful.

For those of you who have difficulty understanding what this all means, the world's economies are interlinked, and the current troubles threatening the Eastern European monetary system could easily cross over and create havoc in our own already-weak system. At the very least, even if international Central Banks manage to stem the tide it will probably mean another huge injection of cash from the U.S. - creating yet more debt and inflation.

Notice that we're hearing very little about this from our own government or the Wall Street pundits. They don't want you to know.

There will be even more surprises. It's going to be an ugly year. Be aware of what's going on around you so that you're not caught unprepared.

Building a Business - It's All About Relationships

2009-02-16T15:23:00.000-08:00

Developing relationships is a core principle of business success.

The economic hardships that are upon us have placed many people in the position of wondering where their next job will come from - and many are contemplating starting their own business.

Unless you're one of the rare few who has a new "widget" that’s so exciting it sells itself - and which you exclusively control - you are faced with entering into a venture where you must compete with others and differentiate yourself from them somehow. Even if you do have that "widget", you must somehow get capital, and produce it, and get it to market, and make people aware of it.

What many new entrepreneurs fail to understand, even though they may have even applied the practice as an employee for another company, is that relationship building is a key tool in accomplishing all of the above and building your business.

How you go about it depends upon the nature of your business, but it's easier now than it has ever been thanks to the revolution in communications.

The object is to develop one-on-one relationships with people who will then feel more comfortable with you and be inclined to consider your offerings. Successful business people understand this, and go to great pains to develop such relationships - then nurture and protect them. Successful salesmen will "fight like junkyard dogs" to protect a relationship.

One of my many examples involves a real estate development venture I was involved with years ago. We were developing office buildings for a particular professional group. The group was very insular - tending to stick among themselves and only trust each other. We obtained the services of a gentleman who already had contact with, and a good reputation with, those professionals. As a result, we were given a majority of the projects in that particular market for several years; in a rapidly-growing geographic area that was short of office space.

Another example involves a hi-tech venture that I was involved with. We had a fairly unique product, but the price tag was high and we were new to the business; so buyers were hesitant. We spent about six months developing personal relationships with decision-makers before we got any substantial order volume - but after that the business took off rapidly.

A couple of years ago, a friend of mine decided to go into competition against her former employer in a media distribution venture. She recognized that her employer's methods were antiquated, and that they had become complacent about their customer base; basically becoming mere order-takers. My friend went out and actively groomed relationships with potential clients, working at it for months before she saw her first real business volume. Two years later she's profitable, she's taken a large volume of business from her former employer, and she's well on her way to having a major success. In fact, she's had such an effect on the market that she's noticed her former employer starting to wake up and change their own practices. Unfortunately for them, my friend has the momentum and the edge. They'll have a hard time catching up.

Relationships even count in a casual retail environment. If you don't make some effort to connect with your customers, they'll just stop showing up and go buy from someone else. Why do you think that even a big operation like Wal-Mart has Greeters?

Not only will good relationships get you the orders, but they’ll “save your butt” when problems arise. Every business has production, or delivery, or other problems from time to time. Having good relationships will make your customers more favorably inclined to forgive and forget.

I could go on and on describing my experiences, and those of others, but the point is that business ultimately comes down to people. You have to develop relationships with them. It doesn't matter what you sell. People make the buy decisions.

I always recommend that new business owners make relationship development a major goal. The better they are at it, and the harder they work at it, the better their chances of success. Those who don't will almost surely fail.

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

It's All About the People!

2009-02-10T16:32:00.000-08:00

People are the primary asset of any business.

One of the characteristics of "civilization" is that we become more & more specialized. People get compartmentalized into their areas of expertise; which are becoming narrower & narrower. I believe that we are now carrying it too far in our businesses.

The advent of powerful IT tools has sped this process up. Great attention and money is now put into systems, processes, and infrastructure. These tools can do wonders for a business, but ultimately it's the people who represent the greatest asset - yet they often become slaves to the very systems & processes that are supposed to make them more effective.

People make the decisions. People guide the business. People interact with the customers, vendors, and other outsiders. People breathe life into the business. People protect and nurture the business. People bring diversity, insight, uniqueness, and creativity. People bring success.
We've created a business climate where people are restricted from, or are afraid of, making decisions or taking risks of any nature. Management doesn't share the strategic vision, so employees can't clearly understand what the end-goal is. People don't understand the total business because they're compartmentalized into narrow functions.

The first goal of any manager or executive should be to ensure that they have the right people in place - and train or replace those who can't or won't perform.

They should then define clear goals that those employees can comprehend and be measured against.

Finally, they should give those employees latitude in deciding how to approach their work; managing by results against the defined goals. Of course, lower-level employees require more guidance, but even they need a little latitude. Unfortunately, we're gravitating toward treating everyone like low-level employees.

Opportunities are lost everyday because employees at all levels don't feel they have freedom of choice.
Bright employees who might make great leaders are pigeon-holed into narrow jobs where they get few learning opportunities or chances to branch out & shine.
So many rules & regulations are sometimes put in place that they have the effect of choking peoples' ability to function.
Decisions are driven up into a smaller & smaller group, or are made by committee (a poor approach in most circumstances, but one that people adopt to spread risk & blame away from themselves).
No two people approach work in exactly the same way, yet we try to impose "vanilla every-man" rules. Individuals need some latitude to put their personal "style" into their work.
Too much of senior management's attention is focused toward risk-reduction. Risk is inherent in any business, and employees need some latitude if the business hopes to capitalize on opportunities.

Of course, implementing a proper culture involves delegating. This is one of the key areas where entrepreneurs fail. Businesses grow to the point where the owner can't control everything anymore, creating the need for additional people. Many owners just can't bring themselves to let go & delegate; turning themselves into a decision choke-point that increasingly strangles the business. I once worked for such a man who carried it to extreme. In his obsessive zeal to control all decisions in a $200 Million company, he reduced all of his employees (managers -and- staff) to the role of clerks. His fear of letting go was so strong that he was blind to the adverse effects which resulted. He didn't know what to do with decision-makers, and feared them. Of course, one of the more negative effects was his inability to attract or hang on to the more talented people. All he has left are the people who can't leave because of age or other factors. Their talent is fading from lack of use, and they're all frustrated. Needless to say, the culture doesn't encourage excellence. His business will survive, but it could be so much more. It will always be held down to a level that he's comfortable micro-managing.

Don't get so caught up in the rules, and regulations, and systems, and processes, and information regurgitation, and controls, and risk-reduction that you lose sight of what really drives your business - your people.

On the Economy – Be Aware! Assess! Think!

2009-02-09T12:57:00.000-08:00

Now more than at any other time in the modern era, it’s time for Americans to put their thinking caps on and do their own assessments of this economy and how to deal with it.

I’ve written prior thoughts along similar lines, but I’ve decided to pull those thoughts together and stress the point more firmly.

I mentioned before that there were lots of “surprises” ahead, and they’re unfolding almost daily.

The primary sources of economic commentary in the media – the banks, Wall Street, and the government – are part of the problem - and they distribute manipulative data. They can’t even keep their messages straight. One minute they’re saying “everything’s going to be okay”, and then they’re putting out scare messages to drive through spending legislation.

▪ Government economic data’s been manipulated so much it’s become a joke
▪ The Federal Reserve (a bank run by bankers for the benefit of bankers) operates in secrecy
▪ The banks & finance houses also operate in secrecy, and send false messages designed to lull you into complacency
▪ The White House & Congress don’t know what to make of the mess, because there is no precedent
▪ The markets are manipulated (Don’t think so? Ha!)

I don’t blame these people for trying to put the best face on things. I even understand their periodic schizophrenic switch to scare-tactics. However, it doesn’t provide a very clear or rational climate for Americans to size things up.

We must sort very carefully through the media hype, and use our own “little grey cells” to assess what’s going on as the basis for making personal decisions.

Whatever government does, it will involve massive spending, debt assumption, and higher taxes – probably for years to come. It’s the only thing they can really do. The short-term impact is yet to be determined – depending on how and where they spend the money - but it will be marginal at best. The long-term impact is something I don’t want to contemplate.

The finance houses and banks won’t be in a position to do anything constructive until we bail them out with our pocketbooks; and even then they will operate for their own self-interest.

Don’t count on help from overseas. They have their own problems.

We Americans will ultimately dig ourselves out – with our savings, with our spending, and with our productivity. America is a country of 300 Million people with 300 Million different opinions on just about everything. The nature of our culture is that we operate individually for self-interest. The only time we really work together is when some foreign power messes with us and we find ourselves in a war. Some might think this is our weakness, but I think it’s our greatest strength. We’ll pull ourselves out of this mess 300 Million different ways; and not due to some “magical” government program.

In the meantime there’s lots of dangers out there, and lots of confusing data. There are also opportunities for those who exercise the intellect to find them.

Don’t just buy into the media rhetoric. Be aware. Sort through the hype & confusion. Think for yourself!

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors
http://www.awalsh.us/

Leveraging the Chinese Economic Miracle, and the Growing Medical Services Market, for Profit - with a US Company

2009-02-05T14:50:00.000-08:00

Who says there aren't decent investments in this weak economy?

A client of mine has come up with a brilliant business formula:

They utilize high-tech, Western-style, state-of-the-art medical practices - combined with proven natural Chinese medical practices - at facilities in China - to provide medical and health treatment for Americans and Europeans at incredible discounts.

The services come at a fraction of the prices encountered in the U.S.
Insurance companies have agreed to pay for the services.
Celebrities want to be associated with the company.
The company is U.S. based.
They're two-years-old, profitable, and poised for rapid growth.
They're planning an IPO (public offering) soon.
The medical services industry is growing, due to an ageing population.
They currently have this market concept all to themselves.

They're ramping up the business with a $5 Million private equity offering that I think is very attractive.

This as an opportunity to participate in a venture that taps the Chinese Economic Miracle - from the relative safety of a U.S. company - in an industry that should continue to grow despite the current economic weakness - offering quality Western-style medical treatment at deeply discounted prices - making them an attractive investment opportunity in this weak economy.

For more information, refer to the information posted on my business website at: http://www.awalsh.us/ on the "Deal1' page.

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder
Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Yes, Virginia, There is a Santa Claus - and Yes, There are Good Investments in this Weak Economy

2009-02-02T12:05:00.000-08:00

Once in a while in my business-dealings I come across a company that really has it's act together and deserves special attention.

A company I'm working with has put out an equity offering that is, in my opinion, one of the finest I've seen in thirty-years of working with entrepreneurs. I think this deal deserves the immediate attention of serious investors.

Their concept is clever, and they've positioned themselves for rapid-growth. Their methodology, and their offerings, are perfect for these times. The pieces are in place, and all they need is a little capital to grow & prosper.

I won't tell you what they do - because they do an excellent job of that themselves.

Extensive information is available on my business website: http://www.awalsh.us/. Look at the "Deal`1" page. Click the "refresh" icon on your browser to get the latest information.

I'll be very surprised if this opportunity doesn't go fast. See and decide for yourself.

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder - Walsh Enterprises, Business Advisors

Career Planning - Listen to Your Psyche

2009-01-27T16:28:00.000-08:00

We're all different; every single human, mortal one of us. Our personalities are pretty much set in stone at an early age. We can correct bad behaviors, but our basic likes & dislikes stay with us to the grave.

You need to listen to your psyche, and pay attention when choosing the work you do.

We all fall into different places on the Introvert-Extrovert scale.
Some people are natural leaders, and some abhor the very idea.
Some people like group activities, and some crave isolation.
Some people should never work with the public, while others excel comfortably.
Some like working with numbers, while the very idea send others "running screaming into the night".

The list goes on and on as to the character traits that shape us.

I'm always amazed at the people who, through dint of circumstances, wind up in the wrong job for their personality. They are generally unhappy, and create an uphill battle for themselves trying to excel at a job they're not fundamentally suited to.

Years ago there was a famous book about the "Peter Principle" - the basic idea being that people sometimes find themselves moving into positions a step above their level of competence. It is my experience that most people find themselves in this position because they didn't listen to their own psyches, and wound up in positions that made them uncomfortable.

A classic example of this is a supervisor my wife works with (details left out). The woman is a nurse-supervisor on a critical floor of a major hospital. She's an introvert, and has no business being in a leadership position. She stays in her office most of the time. When she does come out, she has difficulty relating to others and ends up shouting at everyone. She doesn't help the other nurses. Her misery shows daily, but she apparently can't see the reason why. Like many others, she's stuck in an inappropriate role. Her supervisor is unhappy, her fellow employees are unhappy, and she'll probably end up being pushed out at some point. She'll probably blame everyone but herself, and go right back into a similar mess.

The above case-study is not uncommon. There are lots of people out there who are in the wrong positions, and haven't come to grips with it.

Sometimes we get so caught up in "the game" that we lose touch with ourselves. You're just not going to be happy, and probably won't be successful, if you wind up in a job that grates against your core personality.

So sit down sometime soon and take an inventory of yourself. Measure that inventory against your current career path. If there's a mismatch, you'll probably want to make an adjustment.
Be true to yourself first.

Defense Contractors - Defend Yourselves!

2009-01-27T16:26:00.000-08:00

The local Southern California Metropolitan Area around me is crammed with Defense Contractors and Sub-Contractors; large and small. This article is for you.

In your dealings with our government "friends", you will inevitably run into wrinkles. The auditors may deny an expense item, or the schedulers may slip you a curve, or they may want willy-nilly design changes, or any one of numerous annoyances.

There is a right way and a wrong way for them to do these things, and you have rights. Don't let them railroad you.

You will find that the government reps often don't know their own regulations. They will attempt to force their will by acting like "big brother". Don't let them. If you're right, you're right - and don't you give an inch.

I've worked government contracts in a variety of industries. Wrinkles have arisen in each. I've found that if I have my facts straight, I can fight back at win.

Once I entered an aerospace company that had a host of problems. Basically, we did a Turnaround. When I came aboard, they didn't even have the ability to measure how they were doing on each contract; a problem we quickly remedied. Once we had that visibility, one project popped up above all others as a 'troubled-child". It was a long-term project that was a big loser. As we dug into it, we discovered that the government had caused major interference; making arbitrary design changes without proper notification or documentation. This problem led to production delays, which then prompted the government reps to force two shut-downs on the basis that we weren't performing to terms.

Four of us banded together and built a claim against the government - reconstructing events from records and interviews. We pursued that claim and won - turning a huge loss into a proper profit.

Don't be intimidated, and don't be afraid. if you have your facts straight, stick to your guns. Don't let "big brother' push your around.

...and now, another "Rant": Government Deceit Must Stop!

2009-01-27T16:23:00.000-08:00

The U.S. Government practices deceit on it's own citizens - and it must stop.

Even the "talking heads" on Wall Street have started to comment about the deceitful manner in which the U.S. Government plays with economic data; and they're the government's biggest fans. Just look at the Inflation, Jobs, and Money Supply data. In their effort to put the best face on things, they manipulate the data by changing the assumptions & methods.

Inflation data look bad? - Just drop some dangerous categories completely off.
Money supply growing dangerously? - Just stop reporting the most telling categories.
Jobs numbers look bad? - Change the methodologies to incorporate vague "guesses" that hide the problem.

This has been going on for some time, and is getting worse. I don't trust any economic data put out by the government.

Then there's the manipulation of the financial markets: I've watched trading activity on the markets that's so counter-intuitive as to defy description.

It's REALLY blatant in the Gold market. The manipulation isn't done in the physical market; it's done via options. Huge counter-intuitive trades occur that can only be explained by manipulative activity, and the size of the activity can only be via interference by the Fed (Federal Reserve) and the financial institutions they serve; former executives of those self-same financial institutions being the people who run the Fed. The manipulation is so pervasive and blatant that I can even predict with accuracy when it will happen; down to the time of day. The government has a huge stake in manipulating Gold. They pump out massive quantities of totally unbacked dollars that are only as good as the faith of the populace. Gold is a rare metal that has historically served as a form of money in itself; with it's own intrinsic value. When the government pumps out too many dollars and drives inflation, Gold goes up; unless it's manipulated. Gold, when allowed to trade freely, serves as a "barometer" of the dollar's health. Government has taken that barometer away; creating yet another delusion for the populace -among many.

The Fed has taken a mountain of money and thrown it at their finance industry friends. They've done it secretly; refusing to divulge who got what, or what junk they took back in return. Guess who's going to pick up the tab for that debacle; along with all the other messes government has and will create.

Nobody talks about the unbelievably huge derivatives mess that hangs over everyone's head. It's done in relative secrecy, so it's hard to tell just how monstrous it is; but we do know that is can be measured in trillions of dollars. Derivatives are dangerous, heavily-leveraged investment vehicles that can turn sour rapidly; and they have been ever since the mortgage collapse started. Finance houses have these scattered like a rash across their balance sheets. They've crept into countless investment vehicles that citizens count on. I think the Fed knows how bad the situation is, but they're not talking. I wouldn't give you a nickel for the stock of any of these finance houses. We citizens will end up picking up the tab for this mess too. Our children, and their children will be paying for it too.

Then there's the political spin. While "Rome burns", our leaders and regulators get on TV and blandly tell us that "everything will be okay". The Wall Street pundits jump on the bandwagon and spread "the message". Even the most economically-ill-informed citizens know better.

I'm not some hysterical doomsday-dayer. Yes, we have problems, but we can work them out. I just wish my government would stop lying to me and working manipulatively behind the scenes. I wish they would put the nation's interests ahead of those of the finance houses. I wish they'd stop being part of the problem and become part of the answer. Mostly, I just wish they'd go away and let the economy sort itself out. The things they do are lame, and cause more harm than good.

We now have a new administration in place. I'll watch with interest to see whether the deceit continues, or whether government adopts a more honest and forthright posture.

...and now, a "RANT": Sarbanes-Oxley Must GO!

2009-01-27T16:21:00.000-08:00

I was talking with business friend Patty DeDominic the other day, and she was commenting about how corporate executives have to be so circumspect in their communications these days. She's right; but I don't have to be.

As an independent, I have more flexibility in what I can say publicly - and I have something to say that corporate execs across America have been thinking.

Sarbanes-Oxley is a shameful mess - and it must go.

It was born from the witch hunt in the wake of the Enron insanity. It was enacted as a knee-jerk reaction by Congress to make a public display of "doing something".

The regulators who created it hashed together a mess that has punished the many for unethical activities of the few; causing massive expense and disruption at companies across the country.
The regulators can't even make up their minds what they want; vacillating over requirements and implementation dates on a willy-nilly basis.

Government is infamous for "trying to close the barn door after the horses escape". Sarbanes-Oxley is just one example among many; the idiocy following the recent mortgage-mess being the latest example. Most of the time, they're asleep. The only time they arise from their slumber is when something big jumps up in their collective faces, and then they do something stupid.

It's time to put an end to the witch hunt, and return to a semblance of normalcy.

It's time to stop punishing the many for the actions of the few.

It's time for Sarbanes-Oxley to go.

So You Wanna Start A Business!

2009-01-25T16:28:00.000-08:00

You've got a "hot idea", and/or you're aching to become your own boss - and now you're contemplating a business start-up.

Much has been written on the subject; most of which serves the author's purposes or is written in "entrepreneur-speak" that leaves the reader confused.

I've been directly involved in two successful start-ups. I've helped other entrepreneurs beta-test their ideas, develop business plans, and find start-up money; and I've sent lots of "half-baked amateurs" away. I learned the "biz" from pros who collectively have many successful start-ups under their belts. Following are some brief thoughts from my experience:

Getting the "clever idea" or the "entrepreneurial urge" is just the first step. Take the time to do your homework before you commit or go chasing money.

Do research to determine just how marketable your idea is. The biggest hurdle I've had to overcome in dealing with prospective entrepreneurs is their resistance to this topic. People get too focused on their "widget" or "idea", and delude themselves into thinking that it "can't possibly fail".

What resources do you need, and how knowledgeable are you about establishing and utilizing those resources? Is there manufacturing involved? Do you need a website? Not only are there monetary concerns, but often there's a skills- issue involved. You may want to explore having another organization produce and/or distribute your "widget", or you may need intellectual assets. No matter how experienced and clever you are, you're probably going to need help.

How are you going to live while your business develops? Even if you have the "idea of the century", it's going to take time and money to bring it to market and develop a profitable revenue-stream. A friend of mine started a new business two years ago. She had long experience in the industry, I helped her develop a comprehensive business plan, she got great startup financing, she set up a solid business infrastructure, the competition was vulnerable, and she went after the market like a "tiger on fire". She's just now achieving marginal profitability; and she's one of the more successful entrepreneurs I've known.

How much start-up money do you need, where are you going to get it, and what will you have to give up for it? The banks won't touch you unless you have lots of personal assets to borrow against (and then you'll be putting those personal assets at risk). Venture groups will be fussy, and will want a big chunk of the business (plus some level of control). Angel Investors can help, but they didn't get their money by being stupid and you'll have to show them that you've done your homework (and they'll also want a piece of the business). It amazed me time and again when prospective entrepreneurs sat down with me and expected that I'd be able to find someone to bankroll their venture without any sacrifices on their part. I wouldn't even approach prospective investors unless I was satisfied that a venture was viable and that I had a solid business plan to present; otherwise I'd lose credibility and I wouldn't be invited to approach the investors again.

Nothing in life is free. At some point, most budding entrepreneurs come to the realization that they don't know everything and start seeking out free advise. You generally get what you pay for.

The above considerations fall under the category of VISION. Once you've developed and sanity-checked the vision, it's time to sit down and develop a BUSINESS PLAN. The business plan fleshes out the vision, with consideration to all the needs. It should also address all the identifiable risks. The business plan will not only be necessary to obtain financing, but it will serve as the "bible" for your venture. Going through the business planning process forces you to really think through all the considerations, and enables you to show prospective investors that you're not one of the "half-baked amateurs" I mentioned earlier.

These comments are intended to illustrate the need for thought before action. They are intended to get you thinking, and do not begin to address all the topics you should consider in your planning. There are lots of resources available if you need assistance "filling in the blanks". I highly encourage you to seek competent assistance as necessary to ensure that your venture has the highest prospect for success. Even the best-laid plans can fail (and as the old military saw goes: "No plan survives first contact with the enemy"), but I've found that there's little prospect for success unless you go through this intellectual process first.

To conclude: Think first! It's free, it should be fun, and it will save you a lot of grief.

Good Luck,

Al Walsh

Excuse Me... Your Fly's Open

2009-01-25T16:22:00.000-08:00

Is your business secure from the prying eyes of your competitors? Don't think they're watching? Think again.

Back when I started my career, I was introduced to the concept of "World-Class Management" - which in a nutshell meant to observe what the best-run businesses in our industry were doing and emulate them. I've been doing it in one way or another throughout my career.

Are your salesmen gabbing with their salesmen? You might be surprised. They're fighting over the same customers, and it's just a matter of time before they cross paths. I caught one salesman sharing private company data in order to get into good graces with a competitor because his performance was marginal and he knew he was vulnerable.

Giving factory tours to your competitors? Maybe you shouldn't. Maybe your employees are when you're not looking.

If you're not careful, a host of information about your company and it's methods can slip out.
Then there's the big-time spies; corporate and national. I was watching a show last night where they indicated that there are as many spies in Washington now as in the Cold War. Yep, they're primarily after technology secrets (or any other secret that will take away our competitive advantage). These guys mean business, they're very good at what they do, and they're persistent.

But even matters that are mundane in your business can be harmful if they get out. Internal systems & processes, for instance, that make you more efficient than your competitors.

Even small businesses have to be concerned. Many of you entrepreneurs built your businesses upon clever ideas or more effective methodologies that you don't want to share with the wrong folks.

So take stock of your business and tighten up any potential leakage points before it's too late.

Don't Live in Ignorance

2009-01-25T16:19:00.000-08:00

Use the power of the internet to improve your life.

Ever wondered about something and weren't sure where to go? Get on the internet and start searching.

The internet has provided an explosion of information dissemination on a scale previously unheard of - and it's growing daily at a phenomenal rate. There is information to be had on virtually any topic. Sometimes you have to be a little persistent and clever with your search, but the rewards are there. It's a grand "living encyclopedia".

It's painless, it's free, it's fun, and it only requires some of your time. Everyone's got a computer nowadays; or has access to one. Is yours just collecting dust? I'm not advocating that you become an internet junkie, but if you're not using it regularly you're missing out on a great resource.

Of course, there's no replacement for formal education and accreditations. But if you just have an arm-chair curiosity, or want to get a leg up, or need help on a fine point, go to the internet. Even on complex professional or technical subjects, I've found internet resources that have been tremendously helpful. You can now even get a formal education or accreditation on the internet; and the trend is growing.

There are many sources who provide informed articles and advice on countless topics - free for the taking. I write articles on Business, Economics, Career, and related subjects on my own blog site, and as guest-author on others.

If you're reading this article, then you already have some sense of the power of the internet. Use it to full benefit, and you will enrich your life & career.

Naturally, you have to exercise your own discretion in choosing information. Just as with all other human media, there is bad information out there, and there are those who have nefarious motives. A good dose of common sense will guide you past them.

I recently wrote an article in which I suggested that readers obtain a book of quotes by famous people to assist them with their oral and written communications. The internet serves the same purpose - and much more.

You can enrich your mind, improve your vocabulary, and strengthen your performance in all career and life respects by utilizing the resources that the internet has to offer. I cannot emphasize enough the power that is at your beck and call.

Kids understand this. They embrace technology easily, and use it to advantage. Our foreign friends understand too. They crave knowledge, and often don't have the wealth or resources at hand for traditional education. If they can find a computer somewhere that has internet access, they have the knowledge of the world laid out at their feet. I've found that some of my most avid readers are people of other nations who crave knowledge. Good for them!

I met my wife on the internet. Marrying her was the best decision I've ever made. Without the internet, we would have never met. We lived 100 miles apart at the time. We're now into our 5th year of a delightful marriage.

I use the internet daily; both to disseminate and gather information. You should too. It's the best "self-help guide" ever created. Then there's the added benefit of using the internet to meet up with people like Patty DeDominic, who I mention often and contribute articles to for her site. Without the power of the internet, we probably never would have met; and that would be my great loss.

If you've been holding back, don't wait any longer. Jump on the bandwagon. The internet is by people, for people.

To Those Who Do It Right

2009-01-19T17:20:00.000-08:00

Sometimes Career Development involves just taking stock of, and reinforcing, what we’re doing right. This article is an acknowledgement of all those hard-working corporate managers & executives, at every level, who come to work each day and give it their all.

This is to you, the managers & executives who drive Corporate America - especially those of you in the major companies.

Too often the focus of Career Development discussions is on correcting negatives, or developing new skills. Sometimes we need to just take stock of the things we do right, and reinforce those characteristics & values for ourselves and others. Getting an occasional pat on the back helps the ol’ libido too.

Having “been there and done that”, I know first-hand that the corporate world is a unique environment, requiring a great deal of it’s managers & executives.

They live under a constant barrage of rules & regulations, often setting rules for themselves beyond those imposed from above.
They often work in “vanilla” environments, in tiny offices or grey cubicles; bathed in fluorescent light.
It can be difficult to establish individuality; the culture requiring a high degree of conformance.
There is constant scrutiny; from higher-ups, the Board, Regulators, and -of course- the “never-satisfied” Investors & Analysts.
No one is truly their own boss; at any level. Many initiatives require committee or project-team participation. Watchful eyes are everywhere. Decisions of any consequence often require involvement by several layers of management.
The hours can be long, the work tedious, and the rewards nebulous.
Sometimes it’s hard to keep an eye on the big-picture, what with all the complexities.The business environment can be fierce, and failure is often harshly dealt with.
The government and media attitudes toward big business can be downright hostile at times; making everyone’s job more difficult.
Some moron will get caught in an illegal or immoral act and everyone comes under a new spate of scrutiny; guilt by association being the primary driver.
As a manager or executive, you’re expected to provide leadership; but there are restictions on your freedom of action.

I was watching the Golden Globes the other dayn and was reminded of the offhand manner in which most managers & executives must derive satisfaction from, and recognition for, their work.

There are few award ceremonies; usually just the retirement parties when one is being kicked out.
There are few plaques, or trophies, or other concrete acknowledgements of achievement.
No one’s taking pictures of managers & executives walking the red carpet in fancy tuxedos & gowns.
No media representatives are asking for “warm & fuzzy” interviews.
There are few blatant opportunities to crow one’s accomplishments and “shine”; no tear-filled acceptance speeches.

If you’re one of the army of people who regularly and reliably come to work and give your best; honestly, morally, and decently - give yourself a pat on the back. You are an example to yourself and others of why America is still a formidable economic force despite all the competition, and despite all of the outside inteference.

You are the soldiers and leaders who drive the economic machine. You are shining examples of what’s right in America.

I salute you - and I encourage others to follow in your footsteps.

If you’re not one of these people, it’s past-time to get with the program.

Good luck to you all.

Al Walsh, Owner/Founder, Walsh Enterprises - Business Advisors